Regional Transportation Plan: Explore the Funding Landscape

The long-range transportation plan has to do more than identify what northeastern Illinois wants to accomplish. It also has to demonstrate how the region will fund operations, maintenance and improvements, and expand the transportation system in line with the plan’s ambitions.  

The 2026 Regional Transportation Plan’s (RTP) financial plan forecasts transportation revenues and expenditures from 2027 through 2050. It provides the financial framework for the RTP, helping determine which investments the region can reasonably support while meeting federal requirements for a fiscally constrained long-range plan.

The region’s existing revenues are not enough to meet all its needs

CMAP forecasts approximately $502.5 billion in baseline transportation revenues between 2027 and 2050. Baseline revenues represent existing federal, state, local, and system-generated funding sources that the region can expect given current policies and past trends.

Of that baseline total, approximately:

• $65.7 billion is expected from federal sources 
• $146.9 billion is expected from state sources 
• $193.6 billion is expected from local sources 
• $96.3 billion is expected from system-generated revenues 

These resources provide substantial support for northeastern Illinois’ transportation system, but the financial analysis finds that existing revenues alone will not be sufficient to improve asset conditions and deliver the full range of priorities envisioned in the RTP. 

Baseline revenue forecast by category, 2027-50 (year-of-expenditure)

Modernizing transportation revenues

Maintaining a large and aging transportation system while responding to changing travel needs will require not only continued investment, but also modernizing how the region raises transportation revenues.  

The financial plan therefore includes $70.2 billion in reasonably expected revenues that could become available during the planning period through policy changes at the state, regional, or local level.  

The forecast considers five broad revenue strategies: 

Replace the state motor fuel tax with a road usage charge ($20.1 billion) 
As vehicles become more fuel-efficient, revenues tied to gasoline consumption become less reliable. The financial forecast examines transitioning from the state motor fuel tax to a charge based on miles traveled as one way to provide a more durable transportation revenue source. 

Expand the sales tax base to additional services ($19.8 billion) 
Illinois’ sales tax has traditionally applied to goods, even as services have become an increasingly important part of the economy. Expanding the tax base to additional services could generate new transportation revenue, including additional resources for transit.  

Implement a freight delivery fee ($15.7 billion) 
The region’s role as one of the nation’s leading freight hubs creates substantial economic benefits while also generating infrastructure needs and costs. A freight delivery fee is one strategy for connecting transportation revenue more closely with growing delivery activity. 

Implement regional transportation revenue sources ($10.0 billion) 
Additional regional sources could provide more stable resources for transportation priorities and allow northeastern Illinois to respond to needs that cannot be addressed through existing state and federal programs alone. 

Toll major highway reconstruction and new highway capacity ($4.6 billion) 
Tolling major reconstruction projects and new highway capacity could provide an additional user-based source of transportation revenue while helping finance costly infrastructure investments.  

Note that these estimates are planning assumptions, not detailed implementation proposals. Each strategy would require additional policy development and action before it could become a new source of revenue. 

Reasonably expected revenue forecast by category, 2027-50 (year-of-expenditure dollars)

Where transportation funding goes

Combining baseline and reasonably expected revenues, the financial plan identifies approximately $572.7 billion to support northeastern Illinois’ transportation system through 2050. 

The largest expense category is keeping the region’s extensive transportation system functioning and in good working condition. The current financial plan estimates approximately: 

• $263.9 billion to operate and administer existing roadway and transit systems 
• $172.6 billion to maintain current roadway and transit asset conditions 
• $73.4 billion to improve roadway and transit system conditions 

Beyond the needs of existing assets, the financial plan also identifies: 

• $38.6 billion to enhance the transportation system 
• $24.3 billion to expand roadway, bus, and rail capacity 

Together, these allocations balance the need to operate and preserve today’s transportation network with targeted investments designed to make the system safer and more accessible, reliable, and responsive to future needs. The scale of these costs reinforces one of the RTP’s central messages: preserving and improving what the region already has must remain a major priority even as northeastern Illinois invests in new services and infrastructure. 

Expenditure forecast by category, 2027-50 (year-of-expenditure dollars)

Assessing long-term risk

At the same time, even the most robust forecasts are subject to evolving economic, policy, and implementation conditions. The RTP’s financial outlook, and the ability to implement the RTP, depends on the region’s ability to intentionally and effectively navigate risk over the planning period.  

To better understand the strengths and limitations of the financial planning process, and to identify the conditions under which fiscal constraint might become unbalanced, CMAP also conducted a financial plan risk assessment. The risk assessment evaluates key factors that could impact revenue and expenditure forecasts in the financial plan and identifies ways the region can work together to improve transportation planning outcomes despite ongoing challenges. 

A financial strategy for the next 25 years

The financial plan does not predict exactly how every transportation dollar will be collected or spent over the next quarter-century. Instead, it establishes a financially responsible policy framework for long-range decision-making based on existing revenue sources, reasonable assumptions about future funding levels, and expected transportation investments. 

CMAP and its partners will continue making specific funding and programming decisions through the Transportation Improvement Program, Unified Work Program, and future amendments to the RTP. The financial plan connects those individual decisions to the region’s shared transportation priorities. 

Learn more about the strategies considered to strengthen long-term transportation funding in the RTP transportation funding policy briefs.