Regional Transportation Plan: Planning for the Region’s Growth

Planning for transportation requires understanding how many people and jobs northeastern Illinois may have in the future, where they may be located, and how the region’s population may change over time. CMAP’s socioeconomic forecast provides that outlook for the 2026 Regional Transportation Plan, estimating population, households, and employment through 2050.

The forecast serves two important purposes. It helps CMAP and its partners understand the demographic and economic trends that should inform transportation policies and investments, and it provides inputs for technical work such as travel demand modeling, traffic projections, and air quality conformity analysis. Forecast data also support planning efforts by local governments, partner agencies, economic development organizations, and others throughout northeastern Illinois.

A slower-growth outlook for northeastern Illinois

The updated forecast anticipates continued regional growth through 2050, but at a considerably slower pace than previous forecasts. The region’s population is projected to grow from about 8.58 million residents in 2020 to approximately 8.88 million in 2050, an increase of more than 300,000 people.

The forecast suggests that growth will not occur at a constant pace. The region’s population is projected to approach 9 million around 2040 before plateauing by 2050. Employment follows a similar pattern, increasing from approximately 4.21 million jobs in 2020 to 4.60 million in 2030, then settling at about 4.47 million jobs by 2050.

The new outlook is also notably different from the forecast prepared for the 2022 update of ON TO 2050. The 2050 population projection is more than 1 million residents lower than the previous forecast, while projected employment is roughly 325,000 jobs lower. Recent population trends, domestic out-migration, declining birth rates, and a lower long-term employment outlook from Moody’s all contribute to the change.

An older region with smaller households

Population totals only tell part of the story. Northeastern Illinois’ age and household compositions are expected to change, with implications for travel behavior, accessibility, housing, and transportation services.

Residents aged 60 and older accounted for about 21 percent of the region’s population in 2020. By 2050, that share is projected to rise to 28 percent, or approximately 3.5 million people. At the same time, the share of residents younger than 40 is projected to decline.

Household patterns are also changing. The regional forecast projects the number of households to continue increasing even as overall population growth slows. Average household size is projected to decline from 2.59 people per household in 2020 to 2.32 in 2050.

These trends underscore the importance of planning a transportation system that can serve changing needs, including safe and accessible transportation options for older residents and a growing number of smaller households.

Where growth may occur

CMAP’s local forecast provides a more detailed look at how population, households, and jobs may be distributed across northeastern Illinois. The model suggests that Cook and DuPage counties will continue to have the majority of the region’s residents and jobs, but more growth is projected to occur in the outer counties.

Understanding these shifts helps CMAP and its partners consider where transportation demand may change and where future investments, preservation needs, and connections between communities may become increasingly important.

Map

Percentage change in total population by municipality in northeastern Illinois, 2020 to 2050

Key

•   (-6%) or less
•   (-5%) – (-3%)
•   (-2%) – 0%
•   1% – 3%
•   4% – 6%
•   7% – 10%
•   11% or more

Source

CMAP analysis

Map

Percentage change in households by municipality in northeastern Illinois, 2020 to 2050

Key

•   0% – 5%
•   6% – 8%
•   9% – 15%
•   16% – 30%
•   30% or more

Source

CMAP analysis

Map

Percentage change in employment by municipality in northeastern Illinois, 2020 to 2050

Key

•   (-4%) or less
•   (-3%) – (-2%)
•   (-1%) – 0%
•   1% – 5%
•   6% – 20%
•   21% – 30%
•   30% or more

Source

CMAP analysis

A forecast, not a prediction

Long-range forecasts are best understood as planning tools rather than precise predictions for the future. Conditions can change as the economy, migration patterns, development activity, technology, public policy, and other factors evolve.

CMAP’s socioeconomic forecast provides a consistent and defensible baseline for understanding one plausible future for northeastern Illinois. CMAP can use that baseline to evaluate transportation needs, test policies, and support future planning decisions while continuing to monitor how the region actually changes over time.