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Illinois at risk of a census undercount, especially in communities of color

Key findings

CMAP analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and federal COVID-19 relief funding found that:

• Communities of color are filling out the census at much lower rates than communities with mostly white residents. Compared to the last census, some communities have self-response rates more than 20 percentage points below rates from 2010.
• Hispanic communities (in both Chicago and the suburbs) have the biggest drops in participation since 2010, with average declines of more than seven percentage points. This mirrors trends in other large urban areas in the country.
• CMAP estimated how a census undercount could impact federal resource allocation by examining the CARES Act formula. If the state’s 2019 population estimate had been 5 percent less — and the population of other states stayed the same — Illinois would have lost $235.5 million in COVID-19 relief funding.
   

Executive summary

Fewer people in northeastern Illinois are filling out the census, putting the region at risk of a costly undercount. A new analysis of 2020 census data by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning found that the region’s reduction in self-responses, compared to 2010, is concentrated in communities with large Hispanic and Black populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has made achieving a complete count more difficult at a time when maintaining government support is more important than ever.

The implications of an undercount for the region overall are substantial. All seven counties have communities, including rural, suburban, and urban areas, with low response rates. More than $675 billion in federal funding is distributed in the U.S. every year based on census numbers. An undercount would mean billions of lost federal dollars for the region, creating further barriers to equitable reinvestment.

The recent announcement by the U.S. Census Bureau that field data collection is ending on September 30, 2020 — one month earlier than planned — increases the urgency of getting a complete count of all residents in northeastern Illinois. During outreach activities over the next few weeks, community leaders and groups must use every resource to reach everyone and urge them to complete the census.