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Increasing EV adoption is central to Greater Chicago’s climate strategy

Transportation is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Greater Chicago, creating more than a quarter of emissions in 2020.

To meet the Comprehensive Climate Action Plan for Greater Chicago’s goals, transportation emissions must decrease by more than 90 percent from 2005 levels by 2050. The region has already made meaningful progress, reducing transportation emissions by 29 percent between 2005 and 2020. Much of that reduction, however, came from improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency rather than a shift away from gas-powered vehicles.

Meeting Greater Chicago’s climate goals requires a combination of strategies: expanding transit, increasing walking and biking, improving freight efficiency, and reducing vehicle travel. However, no single strategy has a greater impact than accelerating the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). Rapid EV adoption is the cornerstone of the region’s transportation decarbonization strategy.

Passenger electric vehicles are crucial to meet climate goals

Despite improvements in fuel economy and declining emissions over the past two decades, passenger cars and light-duty trucks make up more than half of all transportation emissions in Greater Chicago (Figure 1). While electrifying all vehicle types is necessary to achieve the region’s climate goals, passenger vehicles represent the largest opportunity for emissions reductions. They produce the greatest share of emissions and are well positioned for electrification. Accelerating the transition to electric vehicles can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions while improving air quality, public health, and long-term transportation costs.

Figure 1. Passenger trucks and cars make up more than half of all transportation emissions

Meeting climate goals requires a full transition to electric vehicles

To achieve the climate action plan’s emissions reduction targets, all new passenger vehicles sold in the region would need to be electric by 2035, as shown by the green line in Figure 2.

This doesn’t mean that every vehicle on the road would immediately need to be electric. Rather, every new vehicle purchased after 2035 should be electric while older, gasoline-powered vehicles would be gradually replaced over time. By 2050, the region’s passenger vehicle fleet is projected to include more than:

• 10 million battery electric light-duty vehicles
• 1 million plug-in hybrid vehicles

Because cars and light-duty trucks typically remain on the road for 10 to 15 years (or longer), the pace of EV adoption over the next 10 years will largely determine the region’s transportation emissions for decades to come.

Figure 2. Existing and past federal emissions standards and incentives are not enough to achieve 100 percent EV sales by 2035.

Current electric vehicle adoption rates are simply not enough

Even with past federal incentives, Greater Chicago was not on track to meet the region’s climate goals.

Under federal policies in place in 2024, including the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, EVs were projected to account for roughly 60 percent of new passenger vehicle sales by 2035, as shown in the yellow line in Figure 2. While this represented significant progress, it still falls short of the pace needed to meet the region’s climate goal.

Recent changes to federal vehicle emissions standards and the early phase-out of federal incentives have significantly lowered those projections. Under current federal policy, EVs are now expected to account for only about one-quarter of new passenger vehicle sales by 2035, as shown in the blue line in Figure 2.

Even if states attempt to replace the lost federal incentives, doing so would require additional subsidies of about $4,300 per vehicle — well beyond the capacity of existing state programs. As shown by the pink line in Figure 2, even with that level of investment, EVs would still account for less than half of new vehicle sales by 2035, leaving a substantial gap.

The recent rescission of the endangerment finding — which provided the legal basis for regulating greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles — adds further uncertainty about the future of vehicle emissions standards and makes it less likely that national policy alone will drive EV adoption at the required pace.

The result is clear: even under stronger federal policies just a few years ago, the region was not on track to meet its EV targets. Under current federal policy, the gap is substantially larger, increasing the importance of state, regional, and local policies.

How the region can increase electric vehicle adoption

No single policy will achieve the pace of EV adoption needed to meet the region’s climate goals. The Comprehensive Climate Action Plan for Greater Chicago identifies three strategies that work together to accelerate passenger vehicle electrification.

Advance EV sales requirements

Strong vehicle emissions standards are among the most effective tools for increasing EV adoption. The climate action plan calls for federal standards to be updated to increase the share of EVs annually, reaching 100 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035. This level of adoption would reduce transportation emissions by 36 percent by 2050.

How states are advancing EV sales requirements

In the absence of stronger federal action, states can help close the gap. Through Clean Air Act waivers, 12 states have adopted California’s Advanced Clean Cars II program, which requires an increasing share of new vehicle sales to be zero-emission through 2035. While the program is slightly less ambitious than what’s needed to meet regional targets, broader adoption of these standards would significantly accelerate the transition away from gas-powered cars, reduce emissions, expand EV markets, and help lower consumer costs.

Advanced Clean Cars II is currently facing legal challenges. At a minimum, if nationwide emissions standards are not strengthened, federal policy should preserve states’ authority under the Clean Air Act to adopt more stringent vehicle standards.

Expand EV incentives

State financial incentives help reduce upfront costs, accelerate market growth, and make the transition more affordable to a broader range of households. Well-designed rebates and tax credits can also improve access for lower-income residents, who often face the greatest barriers to purchasing a new or used vehicle.

Illinois’ EV incentive program

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency Electric Vehicle Rebate Program has already provided more than 11,000 rebates in its first three years. The most recent application cycle closed in May, and the program is currently paused. Building on this program and expanding state EV incentives can help build market momentum and ensure access for all households.

Build EV charging infrastructure

Widespread EV adoption requires reliable, convenient charging infrastructure at homes, workplaces, and public places. Although charging access has expanded rapidly over the past decade, states and municipalities should continue to support growing numbers of EVs and provide drivers with the confidence that they can charge where and when they need to.

Local governments can support EV charging infrastructure

The climate action plan calls for continued expansion of public and private charging infrastructure throughout the region. Local governments can support this effort by updating zoning and development regulations to encourage EV-ready construction, expanding access to charging in multifamily housing and workplaces, streamlining permitting, and coordinating with utilities and private providers to prioritize charging locations. To help municipalities advance these actions, the Metropolitan Mayors Caucus provides technical assistance, training, and planning support through its EV Readiness Program.

Passenger electric vehicles alone won’t meet our climate goals

Electrifying passenger vehicles is essential, but the region needs additional strategies. The climate action plan identifies other actions to reduce transportation emissions throughout the transportation system, including:

• Transitioning diesel freight to electric
• Using low-carbon fuels that replace traditional fossil fuels (e.g., renewable diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, and hydrogen)
• Expanding transit and active transportation options (e.g., walking, rolling, and bicycling)
• Reducing vehicle miles traveled through land use and transportation planning, by creating more compact, mixed-use neighborhoods and walkable communities

Explore these options — and the complete transportation strategy — for Greater Chicago’s climate future reading the climate action plan today.